Fuzzy and Hybrid Approaches to Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper reviews non-probabilistic approaches of modelling uncertainty, particularly in flood forecasting and introduces a fuzzy set theory-based method for treating precipitation uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling, which allows the temporal and/or spatial disaggregation of precipitation. The results of the fuzzy set theory-based method are compared with the probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo method. This paper also discusses the hybrid approaches using propabilistic and possibilistic or fuzzy approaches jointly and their potential for modelling uncertainty. It also introduces the concept of the fuzzy-probabilistic risk in which the forecasts are probabilistic and the consequences are fuzzy. The latter concept can be used for flood warning decision-making.
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